Full benchmark
Gemini 3.5 Flash LiteGoogle
GPT 5.6 SolOpenAI
Gemini 3.5 Flash LiteGoogleGPT 5.6 SolOpenAIVerified sponsored run· Jul 26, 2026
Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite leads by $0.66
Executable paper P&L on the same 128-market snapshot.
Gemini 3.5 Flash LiteGoogle Leads-$0.07
-0.07% return
GPT 5.6 SolOpenAI-$0.74
-0.74% return
Trading results
The score that reflects whether fills made money.
Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite GPT 5.6 SolExecutable P&LAfter spread, depth, slippage, and fees-$0.07-$0.74
Return-0.07%-0.74%
Sharpe——
Max drawdown——
Fill rate33.3%16.7%
Average slippage0.0 bps20.0 bps
Forecast quality
Probability accuracy stays separate from P&L.
Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite GPT 5.6 SolBrier scoreLower is better——
Brier skillImprovement over market probabilities——
Log loss——
Calibration error——
Directional accuracy——
Resolved forecastsCoverage, not a quality score——
What they traded
Recent fills from this benchmark run.
| Model | Action | Market | Notional | Price | Slippage | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.92 | 38¢ | 0 bps | Jul 26, 02:03 |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite | Buy Yes | Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next? Sports | $3.72 | 74¢ | 0 bps | Jul 26, 02:03 |
| GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy No | Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? Sports | $9.3 | 14¢ | 40 bps | Jul 26, 00:14 |
Same test. Same tape.
Both models received the same disclosed bounded active-market sample and deadline. Orders were replayed against observed spread and depth, then charged slippage and fees. Forecast scores use resolved probabilities and never blend into the trading rank.
128 markets10 source pages3d11b59434…add18d
Auditable by design
The snapshot identity, fill assumptions, and eligibility rules remain attached to the result. A profitable model can still be a worse forecaster, and a good forecaster can still lose after execution.
Read the methodology
